HUM 20260220

Update No. 2

Posted 6:30 am on Thursday, 19 February

Update: Clinton County is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected, with the primary hazard being damaging straight-line winds. There is also potential for hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Storm Timing (Estimated)

The most likely window for storms to impact Clinton County is:

• Start: 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM (tonight)

• End: 10:00 PM (tonight) to 12:00 AM (tomorrow)

Timing may shift depending on how storms develop earlier in the afternoon, but this remains the best estimate at this time.

Severe Weather Risk Breakdown

All of Clinton County is included in the Slight Risk area.

• Damaging Wind: 15% chance (risk rank 2 out of 5)

• Hail: 15% chance (risk rank 2 out of 5)

• Tornado: 2% chance within 25 miles (risk rank 1 out of 5)

Day 1 4-Panel (Categorical Outlook, Tornado Outlook, Hail Outlook, and Wind Outlook) as of 6:20 am on Thursday, 19 February 👇

This is not expected to be an all-night event — but storms during the evening window could become severe quickly. The main concern is damaging wind, which can bring down trees and power lines and cause power outages.

We will continue monitoring and will post updates if watches or warnings are issued.

Helpful link to check throughout the day: LINK

Link image as of 6:20 am on Thursday, 19 February 👇

- - - - PRIOR POST - - - -

Update No. 1

Posted 6 am on Wednesday, 18 February

Hazards:

Heads up for Thursday: Strong storms may bring damaging winds, small hail, and a low (but not zero) tornado risk. Stay weather aware, especially 4 PM–10 PM.

Damaging Winds: The primary threat — storms could produce wind gusts strong enough to down tree limbs and cause scattered power outages (15%).

Small Hail: Some storms may produce small hail, which can damage vehicles, roofs, and outdoor equipment (15%).

Isolated Tornado: Low probability, but not zero — an isolated tornado is possible, especially if storms become more organized (2%).

Clinton County remains in a SLIGHT risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Thursday. Additional info: Tornado Risks and SPC Convective Risks.

Timing:

Current forecast guidance indicates the main window for stronger storms in Clinton County is approximately 4:00 PM to 10:00 PM Thursday, with storms potentially weakening later in the evening as daytime energy drops after sunset.

Comment:

Activities: Outdoor activities Thursday afternoon and evening may be disrupted quickly by lightning, strong wind gusts, and sudden heavy downpours. Event organizers should be prepared for short-notice pauses or early shutdowns, especially during the 4 pm to 10 pm window.

Travel: Travel impacts are most likely during heavier downpours and stronger storms, including reduced visibility, ponding on roadways, and brief debris hazards from limbs or blown debris. The most likely issues are localized but could develop fast, especially in rural stretches where debris removal takes longer.

Households (power outage): The primary hazard is damaging winds, which can bring

Weather graph data as of 4 am on Wednesday, 18 February 2026.

down tree limbs and power lines. Even a brief outage can create secondary impacts such as loss of heat*, limited communications charging, and interruptions to home medical or security systems. Households should expect the possibility of scattered outages Thursday evening. *Temperature forecasts from 63F at 4 pm Thursday to a low of 51F by 8 am on Friday.

Households reliant on electrically powered medical devices: Even though the tornado risk is low, the wind threat is enough to justify readiness. Households with electrically powered medical equipment should have their backup power plan ready to implement, including charged battery backups, generator readiness if available, and a plan for where to go if power is lost for an extended period.

- - - - INITIAL POST - - - -

Posted 7:05 pm on Monday, 16 February 2026

Corrected: 4:30 am on Tuesday, 17 February 2026 (correct model used)

Heads Up Message for Thursday, 19 February 2026.

Late Thursday afternoon into the evening there’s a low (Marginal to Slight) probability of thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley, with some storms producing gusty winds and brief heavy rain possible near and south of Clinton County. Keep an eye on evolving outlooks Thursday as the system approaches.

Heads-Up Weather Message for Clinton County, Ohio (Thursday–Friday)

Clinton County residents — stay weather aware Thursday through Friday as a late-week system moves through our region.

⭐ What’s Expected

An unseasonably mild and unsettled pattern develops late Thursday into Friday. Expect rain chances later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with precipitation continuing before tapering Friday. There is also a marginal severe weather risk in parts of southwest Ohio Thursday afternoon and evening — though any severe threat for Clinton County remains low.

⏰ Timing of Weather Hazards

Thursday (Daytime)

• Daytime: Mostly cloudy with mild temperatures near the mid-60s.

• Afternoon into evening: Rain chances increase, especially after mid-afternoon.

• Thunderstorm potential: SPC Day 3 Outlook highlights a Slight (Level 2/5) to Marginal (Level 1/5) risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of southwest Ohio Thursday afternoon/evening — damaging wind and isolated tornadoes are possible in that broader area. Clinton County is on the northern fringe of that risk area, so confidence in severe weather here is low but not zero.

Thursday (Night)

• Widespread rain likely, with rain and possible thunderstorms continuing. Breezy conditions are possible.

Friday (20 Feb)

• Mostly sunny and breezy. Rain has ended by morning and travel conditions improve. Highs mainly in the low- to mid-50s.

⚠️ Identified Hazards

🌧 Rain & Thunderstorms

• Rain likely late Thursday into Thursday night. Some thunderstorms are possible, especially later Thursday.

• At this time, severe weather impacts (damaging wind, hail, tornadoes) for Clinton County appear low probability, but the marginal risk from SPC indicates monitoring is warranted Thursday afternoon/evening.

💨 Wind

• Winds may be elevated Thursday night and Friday, especially with the frontal passage, leading to gusty conditions.

🌦 Travel Impacts

• Late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night rain may reduce visibility and lead to slick roads in spots.• Friday morning travel should improve rapidly with drier conditions.

📍 Potential Impacts

• Thursday (daytime): Routine activities are generally safe — mostly cloudy to showers later.

• Thursday evening/night: Plan for rain on roadways; adjust travel time and drive slower if needed.

• Friday morning: Drying conditions and sunshine return — typical commutes should be fine.

🛑 Stay Weather Aware

• Monitor forecasts Thursday for shifts in timing and intensity of rain and any thunderstorm threat.

• SPC convective outlooks and NWS updates may change the threat level Thursday morning/afternoon.

• Check local advisories and warnings (NWS Wilmington OH) as the system approaches.

As we move closer to spring, it’s normal for Clinton County to see bigger and faster weather changes. This time of year is a transition period, where cold air can still be in place one day, and warmer, wetter air can return quickly the next. When those air masses collide, it can lead to stronger storm systems — including the potential for thunderstorms, damaging winds, and even tornadoes on some occasions. This is why we encourage residents to stay weather aware during late winter and early spring, even when the forecast starts out looking routine.

Bottom Line: Thursday begins mild and mostly quiet, but rain and possible thunderstorms will develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with minor travel impacts possible. Conditions improve Friday with sunshine and breezy skies. Stay alert as the situation evolves.

Stay safe and stay weather aware, Clinton County!