Update #4: 1 pm on Friday, 14 March 2025. Changes are noted in PURPLE.
Update #3: 7 am on Friday, 14 March 2025. Changes are noted in ORANGE.
Comments: If you didn’t get a chance to enjoy today’s pleasant weather, you might need water wings and rocks in your pockets for Saturday. Expect strong winds (hence the rocks) and steady rainfall throughout the day (water wings depending on your swimming skills). The hope is that the weather system currently impacting much of the Midwest today and tonight will weaken as it moves through Indiana late this evening, reducing the potential for severe conditions here. However, be prepared for very windy and wet conditions on Saturday, with the possibility of flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas. Stay informed and take necessary precautions. All always, the weather does reserve the right to change its mind and do something totally different, so please stay weather aware!
Summary: Severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening, with
gusty winds expected even outside of storms during the afternoon. Heavy rain is forecast for Saturday night.
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY special weather statement. A prolonged period without rainfall, winds gusting to 25-30 mph, relative humidity as low as 35%, and unseasonably warm temperatures have increased the threat of wildfires today. Grasses and leaf litter are very receptive to fire. If fire is introduced, ignition is likely and fire spread will be quick. Be aware of the potential for grass and brush fires that may quickly spread today. Call 911 if you see unattended fire. Do not burn today.
WIND ADVISORY in effect from 2 am to 8 pm on Friday (15 March 2025).
Recommended Actions:
For Saturday, reference keywords SEVERE, TORNADO, and POWER at https://www.cc-ema.org/prepare.
Check with family, friends, and neighbors to ensure they are aware of this severe weather pattern expected for the weekend.
Overview: Potential for Saturday severe weather (low confidence at this time). Concerns of high amounts of precipitation could lead to localized flooding.
Timing: Saturday (2 pm to 10 pm for region) for severe weather. Flooding could develop between 8 pm on Saturday through 8 am on Sunday for at risk areas.
Hazards & Impact:
Severe Thunderstorm
Friday - The western half of Clinton County (west of Wilmington) has a MARGINAL Risk (low chance) for isolated severe thunderstorms. The eastern half (east of Wilmington) is NONE (no severe thunderstorm risk).
Saturday - SLIGHT risk (scattered severe thunderstorms possible). Short-lived and/or not widespread, isolated intense storms possible.
Wind (Primary Threat)
Friday - SLIGHT risk (up to 15-30% chance of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of your location.
Saturday - WIND ADVISORY in effect most of day (2 am to 8 pm).
Saturday and Sunday data available by noon on the day prior.
Tornado
Friday - NONE risk for Friday (little to no Tornado Risk).
Saturday - MARGINAL risk (up to 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your location).
Damaging Hail
Friday - NONE (Little to no Hail Risk).
Saturday - SLIGHT risk (15-30% chance of 1" or larger hail within 25 miles of your location.
Lightening
Friday - NONE risk.
Saturday - LIMITED risk (isolated to scattered thunderstorms with dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning expected).
Excessive Rainfall
Friday - NONE (No Excessive Rainfall Risk).
Saturday - ELEVATED risk for SW half of Clinton County and LIMITED for remaining NE half of Clinton County.
ELEVATED risk includes Blanchester, Westboro, Midland, Cuba, Martinsville, Clarksville, Kingman, and New Burlington.
LIMITED risks includes Lumberton, Port William, Sabina, Lees Creek, and New Vienna area.
NWS issued OnePager:
Based on current modeling data, weather events for our location may begin to arrive at 4 am on Saturday. Wind gusts >30 mph may begin and shift lower and higher starting Friday afternoon. Again, Saturday is the threat day for impact weather. Updated at 1:30 pm Friday.
- - - - - - - - - - UPDATES 1 & 2 - - - - - - - - - -
Update #2: 9 am on Thursday, 13 March 2025 (changes incorporated in the information below. See Tornado and Hail risks under Hazards & Impacts.
Update #1: 7 am on Thursday, 13 March 2025
Recommended Actions:
Reference keywords SEVERE and POWER at https://www.cc-ema.org/prepare.
Check with family, friends, and neighbors to ensure they are aware of this severe weather pattern expected for the weekend.
Overview: Potential for Saturday severe weather (low confidence at this time). Concerns of high amounts of precipitation could lead to localized flooding.
Timing: Saturday (noon to 8 pm for region) for severe weather. Flooding could develop between 8 pm on Saturday through 6 am on Sunday for at risk areas.
Hazards & Impact:
Severe Thunderstorm - SLIGHT risk (Scattered severe thunderstorms possible) for Saturday. Short-lived and/or not widespread, isolated intense storms possible.
Wind - MARGINAL risk for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday Up to 15% chance of severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater) within 25 miles of your location.
Tornado - MARGINAL risk for Friday (up to 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your location). Saturday data available by noon on Friday (14 March). As of this post, NWS indicates a tornado is also possible.
Damaging Hail - MARGINAL risk for Friday (up to 15% chance of 1" or larger hail within 25 miles of your location.). Saturday data available by noon on Friday (14 March). As of this post, NWS indicates storm system may contain hail.
Lightening - LIMITED risk (isolated to scattered thunderstorms with dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning expected).
Excessive Rainfall - increased to ELEVATED risk for Saturday (Scattered flash floods possible, some potentially significant. Most vulnerable are urban areas, roads, small streams, and washes).
NWS Outlook Graphics for Day 2 (Friday) and Day 3 (Saturday):
NWS Issued OnePager for Severe Threat Saturday; Heavy Rain Saturday Night
Next Update 7 am on Friday (14 March).
- - - - - - - - - - INITIAL POST - - - - - - - - - -
Posted: 7 am on Wednesday, 12 March 2025
Potential for Severe Weather on March 14-15: Stay Weather Aware
As we look ahead to the upcoming weekend, the potential for severe weather is increasing, particularly on Saturday, March 15. While we are still several days out from having precise forecasts on tornado or damaging wind risks, early indicators suggest a period of active weather across the region.
Friday, March 14: General Thunderstorm Risk
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) currently places Clinton County under a General Thunderstorm risk on Friday, meaning that while thunderstorms may occur, no widespread severe storms are expected at this time. However, lightning and localized flooding remain threats with any thunderstorm, so it’s essential to remain weather aware.
Areas to our west have been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday, meaning there is a low but not negligible chance of isolated severe storms. We will continue monitoring any eastward shifts in this forecast.
Saturday, March 15: Strong Winds & Severe Weather Potential
According to the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Clinton County, southerly winds may gust above 40 mph on Saturday, creating potential hazards such as downed tree limbs and power outages. Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible Saturday and Saturday night.
As we get closer to the event, we will have a better idea of storm intensity and timing. At this stage, it’s important to stay informed and be prepared for changing conditions.
What You Can Do Now
Stay Informed: Continue checking weather updates from trusted sources, including the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, and local emergency management.
Prepare for High Winds: Secure loose outdoor objects such as patio furniture, trash cans, and decorations before Saturday’s potential wind gusts.
Review Severe Weather Actions: Clinton County EMA recommends reviewing actions for the keyword SEVERE and POWER at cc-ema.org/prepare.
Plan for Heavy Rainfall: If you live in flood-prone areas, consider clearing storm drains and ensuring sump pumps are functioning properly.
Looking Ahead
Because severe weather forecasts can change rapidly, we will continue to monitor conditions and provide updates as necessary. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts, such as NOAA Weather Radio, local news, and emergency notifications.
Stay weather aware, and check back for further updates as we get closer to the weekend.
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