Wednesday 20260311
- Thomas Breckel
- Mar 8
- 9 min read
Updated: Mar 11
Update No. 5
Posted: 6:45 am on Wednesday, 11 March 2026
Clinton County Emergency Management Agency continues to monitor multiple rounds of thunderstorms affecting the region today as a storm system moves through the Ohio Valley. Forecast information from the National Weather Service Wilmington and the Storm Prediction Center remains generally consistent with previous updates, although timing and storm evolution have been refined as the system develops. (Updated)
Overall Threat Assessment
Clinton County remains within a SLIGHT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. This level indicates scattered severe storms are possible. The primary concern remains damaging wind, with isolated large hail and a low tornado potential also possible. (No Change)
Wind Advisory
A Wind Advisory is in effect for Clinton County through early evening Wednesday. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected even outside of thunderstorms. These winds may blow around unsecured outdoor items, bring down tree limbs, and produce isolated power outages. Travel may become difficult for high-profile vehicles. (Updated)
Storm Timing
Morning Storms – Early Round; Thunderstorms moving across the region this
morning may produce lightning, isolated hail, and localized strong wind gusts. Some storms may be capable of producing hail during the early stages of the event. (Updated)
Late Morning through Early Afternoon – Main Line; A line of thunderstorms is expected to move west to east across the region late this morning into early afternoon. The primary threat with this line will be damaging wind gusts, though isolated hail and brief spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out if stronger storm segments develop. (Updated)
Afternoon into Early Evening; Additional showers or thunderstorms may occur as the system exits the region. The severe weather threat is expected to decrease toward the evening hours. (Updated)
Locations at Risk
Current forecast guidance continues to indicate all of southwest Ohio, including Clinton County, could experience thunderstorms as this system moves through the region. (No Change)
EMA Monitoring
Clinton County EMA continues to monitor conditions and coordinate with the National Weather Service Wilmington office. Additional updates will be issued if forecast conditions change or warnings are issued.
Residents are encouraged to remain weather aware throughout the day and ensure they have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
[END UPDATE No. 5]
- - - - - UPDATE NO. 4 - - - - -
Update No. 4
Posted: 2:45 pm on Tuesday, 10 March 2026
Clinton County Emergency Management Agency continues to monitor the storm system expected to impact the region late tonight through Wednesday. Information from the National Weather Service Wilmington briefing and Storm Prediction Center outlooks remains generally consistent with earlier updates, with some refinements to the timing and storm structure.
Overall Threat Assessment
Clinton County remains within a SLIGHT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. This level indicates scattered severe storms are possible. The primary severe weather threat remains damaging wind, with isolated large hail and a low tornado potential also possible. (No Change)
Storm Rounds and Timing
Round 1 – Late Tonight into Wednesday Morning. Storm coverage is expected to increase rapidly from the southwest around 5 AM Wednesday, with widespread thunderstorms likely across the region between approximately 5 AM and 11 AM. These storms will produce frequent lightning and may contain large hail, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. (Updated)
Midday Lull – A brief decrease in thunderstorm activity may occur late Wednesday morning into early afternoon, although gusty winds of 40–50 MPH may develop even outside of storms during this time period as a cold front approaches the region. (Updated)
Round 2 – Wednesday Afternoon and Early Evening. Another round of thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front from roughly 4 PM to 7 PM, moving quickly from west to east across the region. The primary threat with this round remains damaging winds, with isolated hail and a low tornado risk possible. (No Change)
Locations at Risk
Current forecast guidance continues to indicate all of southwest Ohio, including Clinton County, could experience thunderstorms during this event. (No Change)
Residents are encouraged to remain weather aware Wednesday and ensure they have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
Risk remainder for Clinton Count for Tuesday:
[END UPDATE No. 4]
- - - - - UPDATE NO. 3 - - - - -
Update No. 3
Posted: 6:15 am on Tuesday, 10 March 2026
Forecast guidance continues to show a strong storm system moving into the Ohio Valley. Clinton County remains in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Tuesday night and a Slight Risk for Wednesday as the system moves through the region.
Tuesday Night – MARGINAL Risk (1 out of 5)
Threats:
Hail remains the primary threat (No Change)
Isolated damaging wind gusts (Updated)
Lightning and brief heavy rainfall (No Change)
Timing:
Thunderstorms expected late Tuesday night (No Change)
Storms developing Tuesday night may produce hail as the primary severe hazard, though a few storms could also produce localized wind damage.
Wednesday – SLIGHT Risk (2 out of 5)
Threats:
Damaging wind gusts remain the primary severe threat (No Change)
Isolated hail possible (No Change)
A brief, weak tornado (EF-0 to EF-1) cannot be completely ruled out, but the risk remains very low (No Change)
Locally heavy rainfall and ponding in low-lying areas (No Change)
Timing:
Thunderstorms possible Wednesday daytime into the evening (No Change)
Two rounds of storms expected (AM & PM)
Greatest severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon into early evening (No Change)
Even outside of thunderstorms, strong gradient winds may reach 40–50 mph at times Wednesday, which could lead to isolated tree damage or scattered power outages.
Forecast Consideration
There is continued uncertainty regarding whether morning thunderstorms Wednesday could impact the strength of storms later in the day.
Bottom Line
For Clinton County, Tuesday night storms may bring hail and isolated wind damage, while Wednesday remains the higher-impact period with the potential for damaging winds and additional storms during the afternoon and evening.
Residents should remain weather aware and monitor forecast updates as the timing and severity details become clearer.
[END UPDATE No. 3]
- - - - - UPDATE NO. 2 - - - - -
Update No. 2
Posted: 4 pm on Monday, 9 March 2026
Forecast confidence continues to increase that a strong storm system will impact the Ohio Valley during the middle of the week. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show Clinton County in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Tuesday and a Slight Risk for Wednesday, indicating a higher potential for organized storms as the system moves through the region.
Tuesday – Marginal Risk
Threats:
Isolated thunderstorms (No Change)
Hail as the primary severe threat (Updated)
Isolated gusty winds (No Change)
Timing:
Storm chances increase late Tuesday night (Updated)
Wednesday – Slight Risk
Threats:
Damaging wind gusts as the primary severe threat (Updated)
Large hail (No Change)
Isolated tornado possible (No Change)• Locally heavy rainfall (No Change)
Timing:
Storms possible Wednesday daytime into the evening (Updated)
Greatest severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon into early evening (No Change)
Clinton County residents should continue monitoring forecast updates. Tuesday currently appears to bring isolated storms with hail as the primary concern, while Wednesday carries the higher risk for stronger storms with damaging winds as the primary threat.
[END UPDATE No. 2]
- - - - - UPDATE NO. 1 - - - - -
Update No. 1
Posted: 6:45 am on Monday, 9 March 2026
A strong storm system is expected to move through the region during the middle of the week, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, gusty winds, and periods of heavy rain. While details will continue to evolve over the next couple of days, residents in Clinton County should monitor the forecast and be prepared for changing conditions. In addition to severe potential, heavy rain may lead to flooding to at risk areas on Wednesday.
The following hazards are currently being monitored for Clinton County:
Damaging wind
Hail
Isolated tornado potential
Heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding
At this time, the tornado risk remains very low, but it cannot be completely ruled out if stronger storms develop.
Tuesday Outlook (MARGINAL Risk)
Clinton County is currently under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Tuesday. This level indicates isolated severe storms are possible but are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity.
Current probability levels include:
Less than 1% tornado risk
5% risk for severe hail
5% risk for damaging wind
Storm activity Tuesday is most likely to develop Tuesday night, with hail appearing to be the primary concern during that time period.
Wednesday Outlook (SLIGHT Risk)
Conditions become more favorable for stronger storms on Wednesday. Clinton County is currently under a Slight Risk for severe weather with a 15% probability of severe storms occurring within 25 miles of a location.
The primary threats on Wednesday may include:
Damaging wind as the main concern
Possible hail
A very small but non-zero tornado potential
Timing
Current timing expectations suggest:
Storms may begin late Tuesday night
Additional thunderstorms may occur Wednesday morning
The main window for stronger storms appears to be Wednesday afternoon into the evening
Early-day storms on Wednesday could influence how strong storms become later in the day.
Locations at Risk
At this time, all of Clinton County remains within the forecast risk area, including Wilmington, Blanchester, Clarksville, Sabina, New Vienna, Martinsville, and surrounding rural areas.
Preparedness Reminder
Now is a good time to take a few simple preparedness steps:
Monitor updated forecasts Tuesday and Wednesday
Review your severe weather safety plans
Ensure you can receive weather alerts
Be prepared for strong storms and brief power outages
Prepare now (link) with keywords SEVERE and POWER.
Forecast details may continue to change as this system develops. Clinton County EMA will continue providing updates as new information becomes available.
[END UPDATE No. 1]
- - - - - ORIGINAL POST - - - - -
Posted: 11:30 am on Sunday, 8 March 2026
Storm Chances Increase Tuesday Night into Wednesday, 11 March 2026
While the start of the week looks fairly quiet across Clinton County, attention is beginning to turn toward midweek weather conditions that could bring increasing chances of showers, thunderstorms, and potentially some stronger storms depending on how the system develops.
At this time, there is no immediate cause for concern, but the evolving forecast is something worth keeping an eye on as we move through the next couple of days.
Note: When referinging days, they are as follows...DAY 1 is always "today," DAY 2 is always "the next day," and DAY 3 is always "the day after tomorrow."
Tuesday (Day 3): Mostly Quiet During the Day
Tuesday currently looks mostly cloudy with only a slight chance of showers during the morning and afternoon. Forecast highs are expected to reach around 74°F, with southwest winds between 10 and 15 mph.
Rain chances during the daytime hours remain relatively low, with only about a 20% chance of precipitation. Most areas may remain dry through much of the day.
Tuesday Night: Storm Chances Increase
Weather conditions begin to change Tuesday night, when the probability of rain and thunderstorms increases significantly.
Forecast guidance shows showers becoming more likely overnight, with thunderstorms possible after about 2:00 AM Wednesday. The chance of precipitation rises to around 80%, with rainfall totals generally expected to fall between a quarter and a half inch.
While widespread severe weather is not currently expected, thunderstorms can still produce brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Storm Prediction Center Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook places Clinton County near the boundary of a Marginal Risk area for severe weather on Tuesday (Day 3).
A Marginal Risk means that isolated severe storms are possible, but they are
expected to be limited in coverage and intensity.
SPC guidance currently shows about a 5% probability for severe weather within 25 miles of a location in the region.
Wednesday (Day 4): Potential for Stronger Storms
Looking ahead to Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a 15% severe weather probability area across parts of the region, which includes areas near Clinton County.
A 15% probability area does not mean severe weather is guaranteed, but it does indicate a higher level of concern for stronger storms if the right atmospheric conditions develop.
At this point in the forecast cycle, details regarding timing, storm strength, and exact locations are still uncertain, and the outlook may shift as new data becomes available.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Residents can review the National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook for the area 👉 here 👈
This product provides additional context on potential weather hazards expected over the next several days.
What This Means for Clinton County
At this stage, the midweek weather pattern is best described as something to monitor rather than something to worry about.
Key points to keep in mind:
Tuesday daytime appears mostly quiet
Rain and thunderstorms become more likely Tuesday night
Some storms could become stronger on Wednesday depending on conditions
Forecast details will likely change over the next 24–48 hours
Preparedness Reminder
Now is simply a good time to:
Monitor updated forecasts• Make sure weather alerts are enabled on your phone
Review your plan for severe weather warnings
Stay weather aware as we move into the middle of the week
Clinton County EMA will continue monitoring forecast updates and will provide additional information if confidence in impacts increases.
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