Wednesday 20260311
- Thomas Breckel
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
Updated: 2 hours ago
Update No. 2
Posted: 4 pm on Monday, 9 March 2026
Forecast confidence continues to increase that a strong storm system will impact the Ohio Valley during the middle of the week. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show Clinton County in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Tuesday and a Slight Risk for Wednesday, indicating a higher potential for organized storms as the system moves through the region.
Tuesday – Marginal Risk
Threats:
Isolated thunderstorms (No Change)
Hail as the primary severe threat (Updated)
Isolated gusty winds (No Change)
Timing:
Storm chances increase late Tuesday night (Updated)
Wednesday – Slight Risk
Threats:
Damaging wind gusts as the primary severe threat (Updated)
Large hail (No Change)
Isolated tornado possible (No Change)• Locally heavy rainfall (No Change)
Timing:
Storms possible Wednesday daytime into the evening (Updated)
Greatest severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon into early evening (No Change)
Clinton County residents should continue monitoring forecast updates. Tuesday currently appears to bring isolated storms with hail as the primary concern, while Wednesday carries the higher risk for stronger storms with damaging winds as the primary threat.
- - - - - UPDATE NO. 1 - - - - -
Update No. 1
Posted: 6:45 am on Monday, 9 March 2026
A strong storm system is expected to move through the region during the middle of the week, bringing the potential for thunderstorms, gusty winds, and periods of heavy rain. While details will continue to evolve over the next couple of days, residents in Clinton County should monitor the forecast and be prepared for changing conditions. In addition to severe potential, heavy rain may lead to flooding to at risk areas on Wednesday.
The following hazards are currently being monitored for Clinton County:
Damaging wind
Hail
Isolated tornado potential
Heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding
At this time, the tornado risk remains very low, but it cannot be completely ruled out if stronger storms develop.
Tuesday Outlook (MARGINAL Risk)
Clinton County is currently under a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Tuesday. This level indicates isolated severe storms are possible but are expected to be limited in coverage and intensity.
Current probability levels include:
Less than 1% tornado risk
5% risk for severe hail
5% risk for damaging wind
Storm activity Tuesday is most likely to develop Tuesday night, with hail appearing to be the primary concern during that time period.
Wednesday Outlook (SLIGHT Risk)
Conditions become more favorable for stronger storms on Wednesday. Clinton County is currently under a Slight Risk for severe weather with a 15% probability of severe storms occurring within 25 miles of a location.
The primary threats on Wednesday may include:
Damaging wind as the main concern
Possible hail
A very small but non-zero tornado potential
Timing
Current timing expectations suggest:
Storms may begin late Tuesday night
Additional thunderstorms may occur Wednesday morning
The main window for stronger storms appears to be Wednesday afternoon into the evening
Early-day storms on Wednesday could influence how strong storms become later in the day.
Locations at Risk
At this time, all of Clinton County remains within the forecast risk area, including Wilmington, Blanchester, Clarksville, Sabina, New Vienna, Martinsville, and surrounding rural areas.
Preparedness Reminder
Now is a good time to take a few simple preparedness steps:
Monitor updated forecasts Tuesday and Wednesday
Review your severe weather safety plans
Ensure you can receive weather alerts
Be prepared for strong storms and brief power outages
Prepare now (link) with keywords SEVERE and POWER.
Forecast details may continue to change as this system develops. Clinton County EMA will continue providing updates as new information becomes available.
- - - - - ORIGINAL POST - - - - -
Posted: 11:30 am on Sunday, 8 March 2026
Storm Chances Increase Tuesday Night into Wednesday, 11 March 2026
While the start of the week looks fairly quiet across Clinton County, attention is beginning to turn toward midweek weather conditions that could bring increasing chances of showers, thunderstorms, and potentially some stronger storms depending on how the system develops.
At this time, there is no immediate cause for concern, but the evolving forecast is something worth keeping an eye on as we move through the next couple of days.
Note: When referinging days, they are as follows...DAY 1 is always "today," DAY 2 is always "the next day," and DAY 3 is always "the day after tomorrow."
Tuesday (Day 3): Mostly Quiet During the Day
Tuesday currently looks mostly cloudy with only a slight chance of showers during the morning and afternoon. Forecast highs are expected to reach around 74°F, with southwest winds between 10 and 15 mph.
Rain chances during the daytime hours remain relatively low, with only about a 20% chance of precipitation. Most areas may remain dry through much of the day.
Tuesday Night: Storm Chances Increase
Weather conditions begin to change Tuesday night, when the probability of rain and thunderstorms increases significantly.
Forecast guidance shows showers becoming more likely overnight, with thunderstorms possible after about 2:00 AM Wednesday. The chance of precipitation rises to around 80%, with rainfall totals generally expected to fall between a quarter and a half inch.
While widespread severe weather is not currently expected, thunderstorms can still produce brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Storm Prediction Center Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook places Clinton County near the boundary of a Marginal Risk area for severe weather on Tuesday (Day 3).
A Marginal Risk means that isolated severe storms are possible, but they are
expected to be limited in coverage and intensity.
SPC guidance currently shows about a 5% probability for severe weather within 25 miles of a location in the region.
Wednesday (Day 4): Potential for Stronger Storms
Looking ahead to Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a 15% severe weather probability area across parts of the region, which includes areas near Clinton County.
A 15% probability area does not mean severe weather is guaranteed, but it does indicate a higher level of concern for stronger storms if the right atmospheric conditions develop.
At this point in the forecast cycle, details regarding timing, storm strength, and exact locations are still uncertain, and the outlook may shift as new data becomes available.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Residents can review the National Weather Service Hazardous Weather Outlook for the area 👉 here 👈
This product provides additional context on potential weather hazards expected over the next several days.
What This Means for Clinton County
At this stage, the midweek weather pattern is best described as something to monitor rather than something to worry about.
Key points to keep in mind:
Tuesday daytime appears mostly quiet
Rain and thunderstorms become more likely Tuesday night
Some storms could become stronger on Wednesday depending on conditions
Forecast details will likely change over the next 24–48 hours
Preparedness Reminder
Now is simply a good time to:
Monitor updated forecasts• Make sure weather alerts are enabled on your phone
Review your plan for severe weather warnings
Stay weather aware as we move into the middle of the week
Clinton County EMA will continue monitoring forecast updates and will provide additional information if confidence in impacts increases.