HUM ENHANCED Risk 20260721
- Thomas Breckel
- 21 hours ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 3 hours ago
Update No. 1
Posted: 6:30 am on Monday, 20 July 2026
SUMMARY
The severe weather outlook for Tuesday, 21 July remains largely unchanged. Approximately the southeastern half of Clinton County remains in an ENHANCED Risk—Level 3 of 5—including Sabina, New Vienna, Martinsville, eastern and southern Wilmington, Cuba, Midland, Westboro and Blanchester. The remainder of the county remains in a SLIGHT Risk—Level 2 of 5—including Clarksville, Burlington, western and northern Wilmington, Lumberton and Port William.
Damaging straight-line winds remain the primary concern. The damaging-wind probability is 45% across the Enhanced Risk portion of the county and 30% across the Slight Risk portion. The entire county remains within a 15% probability for damaging hail, while the probability for an isolated tornado ranges from 2% to 5%. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the broader Ohio Valley region, with damaging wind identified as the most likely widespread hazard.
THREATS
Damaging Straight-Line Winds – Significant Threat: Severe storms may produce concentrated areas of downed trees and power lines, blocked roads, power outages and possible structural damage. The highest probability is across the southern and eastern portions of Clinton County, but damaging winds are possible anywhere in the county.
Isolated Tornadoes – Limited Threat: The entire county remains within a 2% to 5% tornado probability. A few tornadoes may develop if individual supercells remain separate or if rotating circulations develop within an organized line of storms.
Large Hail – Limited Threat: All of Clinton County remains within a 15% probability for damaging hail. Isolated storms may produce hail capable of damaging vehicles, crops and outdoor property.
Heavy Rain and Localized Flooding – Limited Threat: Torrential rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, standing water and drainage problems, particularly where storms repeatedly affect the same locations.
TIMING
The primary severe weather window remains Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, although storms could continue into the nighttime hours. A more specific arrival window for Clinton County is not yet available, and the exact timing will depend on how storms develop and organize across the Ohio Valley.
Additional Comments
The Storm Prediction Center indicates that storms may develop as a mixture of individual supercells and one or more bowing lines. This suggests that hail or isolated tornadoes may be possible with individual storms, while damaging winds could become the more widespread concern as storms organize into lines. Forecast confidence remains highest for damaging winds, while confidence in the tornado, hail and flooding threats remains lower.
The dividing line between the Enhanced and Slight Risk areas should not be treated as a firm boundary. Severe storms can cross both portions of the county, and everyone should prepare for the possibility of damaging winds and power outages.
Use Monday to secure tents, canopies, trampolines, lawn furniture, signs and other loose outdoor items. Review where you will take shelter, how you will receive warnings and what you will do if electrical service or road access is disrupted. Outdoor event organizers should be prepared to suspend activities and move people into sturdy shelter before severe weather arrives.
This Heads Up Message is for advance planning and is not a watch or warning.
Plan. Prepare. Protect.
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- - - - END UPDATE No. 1 - - - -
Posted: Sunday, 19 July 2026 | 11:45 AM
Summary
Clinton County is included in an ENHANCED Risk—Level 3 of 5—for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, 21 July. Numerous severe thunderstorms may develop across the Ohio Valley as a strong weather system and cold front move through the region. Damaging straight-line winds are expected to be the primary concern.
The National Weather Service indicates that severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with the greatest impacts expected along and southeast of Interstate 71. This includes Clinton County. Storms may produce downed trees and power lines, possible structural damage, large hail, isolated tornadoes and localized flooding.
Threats
Damaging Straight-Line Winds – Significant Threat: Numerous downed trees and power lines are possible, along with scattered structural damage. Storms may organize into fast-moving lines or bowing segments capable of producing corridors of wind damage.
Isolated Tornadoes – Limited Threat: Tornadoes will be possible with any storms that remain separate or develop rotation before forming into a larger line. Specific tornado threat areas will be included with the Monday morning update.
Large Hail – Limited Threat: Isolated storms may produce hail large enough to damage vehicles, crops and outdoor property.
Heavy Rain and Localized Flooding – Limited Threat: Thunderstorms may produce torrential rainfall, resulting in isolated flash flooding or drainage problems in locations receiving repeated storms.
Timing
The primary severe weather window is currently expected Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, although some storms could occur earlier in the day or continue into the nighttime hours. A more specific arrival window for Clinton County is not yet available.
Additional Comments
This remains a Day 3 forecast, and changes to the risk area, storm timing and individual threats remain possible. Thunderstorms crossing the region Monday night or Tuesday morning could affect how much instability develops Tuesday afternoon and may shift the timing or severity of the later storms.
The exact storm mode also remains uncertain. Individual storms could initially support hail or tornadoes, but the overall environment favors storms eventually organizing into one or more lines with damaging winds becoming the primary concern.
Residents, businesses, special-event organizers and public safety partners should use Monday to review severe weather procedures and plans for possible power outages, blocked roads and disrupted outdoor activities. This Heads Up Message is for advance planning and is not a watch or warning.
Plan. Prepare. Protect.