Storm Threat Increasing Across Ohio Valley – Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued Mesoscale Discussion #631, highlighting

growing concern for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of Ohio, eastern Kentucky, northern West Virginia, and western Pennsylvania. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for portions of this region, with an 80% probability of issuance.

⚠️ What’s Happening

As of late morning, convection is beginning to increase along a north-south confluence axis stretching from central Kentucky into western Ohio. While most storms remain low-topped for now, wind gusts of 30–35 mph have already been recorded. This is expected to change quickly.

With temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s, the atmosphere is becoming moderately unstable, with MLCAPE values rising into the 1000–1500 J/kg range. This level of instability—combined with ongoing surface convergence—is expected to support a transition from weak showers into strong, gusty thunderstorms, some of which could organize into multicell clusters.

🌪️ Threat Summary

While supercells are not expected to be dominant, the risk for scattered damaging wind gusts (55–70 mph) and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25") will increase this afternoon. The most likely impacts for our region include:

• Gusty Winds: Scattered pockets of strong to damaging winds, especially near the most intense storm cores.

• Small to Marginally Severe Hail: Localized hail near or just above 1 inch in diameter may accompany stronger downdrafts.

• Brief Rotation?: Although the low-level shear is present, upper-level support is limited. Any tornado threat would be brief and isolated.

🕑 Timing and Location

• Peak Storm Development: 2:00 PM to 6:00 PM EDT

• Primary Risk Zone: Upper Ohio Valley, with emphasis on western and central Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and extending northeast toward Pittsburgh.

✅ What to Do Now

• Stay Weather Aware: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is expected. This means conditions are becoming favorable for dangerous storms.

• Secure Outdoor Items: With strong gusts possible, make sure anything loose is tied down or moved indoors.

• Prepare for Potential Power Interruptions: Especially in rural areas, downed branches or wires from strong gusts could briefly impact service.

• Monitor Warnings: These storms may evolve quickly. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or trusted local sources for warnings if issued.

As the line intensifies, updates will be provided. A reminder: not every storm will be severe, but those that do strengthen could produce hazardous weather conditions over short periods.

Be Prepared, Not Scared. Stay connected and stay safe.