HUM 20260616-18
- Thomas Breckel
- Jun 15
- 8 min read
Updated: Jun 17
Update No. 3
Posted 6:30 am on Wednesday, 17 June 2026
Summary of Changes Since Update No. 2
Forecast confidence continues to increase that severe weather will affect portions of southwest Ohio tonight. The National Weather Service now indicates that the primary line of storms may arrive slightly earlier than previously forecast. Damaging winds remain the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes, large hail, torrential rainfall, and localized flash flooding remain possible. Residents should closely monitor weather conditions this afternoon and evening and ensure they have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight.
Forecast Confidence: Confidence is now high that thunderstorms will affect the region tonight. Confidence is moderate regarding the exact timing and location of the strongest storms, and moderate regarding the extent of any flash flooding concerns.
--- Wednesday (June 17) ---
Summary
Wednesday remains the day of greatest concern for severe weather across Clinton County and much of southwest Ohio. The Storm Prediction Center continues to place Clinton County in a SLIGHT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Confidence has increased that severe weather will develop somewhere in the region this evening and overnight. Damaging straight-line winds remain the primary hazard, although isolated tornadoes, large hail, torrential rainfall, and localized flash flooding remain possible.
Main Threats
Damaging winds (primary threat)
Wind gusts of 30-40 mph possible even outside thunderstorms
Isolated tornadoes
Large hail
Frequent lightning
Torrential rainfall
Localized flash flooding
Timing
Isolated storms may begin developing late this afternoon.
The primary line of storms is expected this evening through the overnight hours.
Forecast updates indicate the line of storms may arrive slightly earlier than previously expected.
Potential Community Impacts (Wednesday Night)
A Lifeline is a critical service that people depend on every day—such as power, communications, transportation, healthcare, water, food, and public safety—and understanding potential impacts to these services helps residents prepare for how a disaster may affect their daily lives and recovery.
Impact Confidence Key:
🔴 [Expected] Impacts are anticipated to occur in portions of Clinton County if the forecast verifies.
🟠 [Likely] Expected in parts of Clinton County if the forecast verifies.
🟡 [Possible] Reasonable chance of occurring depending on storm development and location.
🟢 [Isolated Potential] Limited or localized occurrence possible.
Safety & Security
🟡 Downed trees and power lines could block roads and create hazardous travel conditions.
🔴 Outdoor activities and evening events may be disrupted, delayed, or postponed.
🟡 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings may be issued with little lead time overnight.
Energy
🟡 Damaging winds could cause scattered power outages.
🟢 Longer-duration outages could occur where multiple utility lines or poles are damaged.
Communications
🟡 Power outages may temporarily affect internet, cellular service, and device charging capability.
🟡 Cellular networks may become congested immediately following warnings or power outages, delaying calls and text messages.
🟠 Residents relying solely on mobile phones for weather alerts may miss warnings if devices are not charged or notifications are disabled overnight.
Transportation
🔴 Heavy rainfall and reduced visibility may affect evening travel.
🟡 Downed trees, utility lines, or flooding could temporarily close roads.
🟡 Travel delays may occur during the evening commute and overnight hours.
Health & Medical
🟡 Individuals dependent on electrically powered medical equipment may be affected by power outages.
🟠 Overnight storm timing increases the risk that warnings may not be received while residents are sleeping.
Food, Hydration, Shelter
🟠 Residents may need to move quickly to a safe shelter location within their home if warnings are issued.
🟢 Extended power outages could affect refrigerated or frozen food.
Cascading Impact Considerations
Disasters rarely affect just one service; the examples below show how a single weather impact can create a chain reaction that affects multiple parts of the community.
🟡 Damaging winds → Downed trees/power lines → Localized power outages → Communications disruptions.
🟡 Heavy rainfall → Water-covered roads → Slower travel and emergency response.
🟢 Power outages → Loss of internet or cellular service → Reduced access to weather information overnight.
--- Thursday (June 18) ---
Summary
Showers and thunderstorms may continue into Thursday as the storm system exits the region. The severe weather threat appears lower than Wednesday night, but some strong to severe storms remain possible, particularly during the morning hours. Flash flooding may continue to be a concern in locations that receive heavy rainfall overnight. In addition, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected throughout the day, even outside of thunderstorms.
Main Threats
Damaging winds
Gusty non-thunderstorm winds
Isolated tornadoes
Heavy rainfall
Localized flooding
Frequent lightning
Timing
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning
Additional gusty winds expected throughout the day Thursday
Plan. Prepare. Protect.
[END UPDATE No. 3]
- - - START UPDATE No. 2 - - -
Update No. 2
Posted 2:30 pm on Tuesday, 16 June 2026
Summary
The National Weather Service has made several refinements to the forecast since Update No. 1. Confidence continues to increase that severe thunderstorms will affect southwest Ohio Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The most notable changes include a slightly earlier arrival of the primary line of storms, increased confidence in widespread damaging winds Wednesday night, and greater emphasis on a conditional tornado threat associated with isolated storms that may develop ahead of the main line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard of concern, although large hail, isolated tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding remain possible. Forecast confidence is moderate to high regarding the occurrence of thunderstorms and severe weather in the region, while confidence remains lower regarding exact timing, storm coverage, and severity at any individual location.
--- Tuesday (June 16) ---
Hazards / Threats:
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible
Damaging wind gusts
Frequent lightning
Timing:
Late afternoon and evening
Additional Notes:
The greatest severe weather risk remains northwest of the I-71 corridor.
Forecast confidence is moderate that storms will develop, but lower regarding how far southeast they will extend into Ohio.
Clinton County remains on the southeastern edge of today's threat area.
--- Wednesday (June 17) ---
Hazards / Threats:
Damaging wind gusts
Large hail
Isolated tornadoes
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Localized flash flooding
Timing:
Late afternoon through overnight hours
Additional Notes:
Severe thunderstorms are now considered likely.
Isolated storms may develop during the late afternoon and evening ahead of the main line. If these storms form, they could pose a tornado risk.
The primary line of storms is expected to move through Wednesday evening and overnight, with damaging winds remaining the greatest concern.
Flash flooding is possible, particularly where multiple rounds of storms occur.
Forecast confidence is increasing regarding severe weather impacts, although some uncertainty remains concerning exact timing and storm intensity.
--- Thursday (June 18) ---
Hazards / Threats:
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible
Damaging wind gusts
A few tornadoes possible
Localized flooding
Gusty non-thunderstorm winds
Timing:
Morning thunderstorms possible
Gusty winds continuing through much of the day
Additional Notes:
The highest severe weather risk appears focused across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky.
Some storms may still be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes Thursday morning.
Even after thunderstorms depart, sustained gusty winds are expected during the day and could cause additional issues where trees, limbs, or utility infrastructure have already been weakened.
Forecast confidence is moderate regarding the windy conditions and lower regarding any additional severe thunderstorm development Thursday morning.
Bottom Line
Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning remains the period of greatest concern for Clinton County. Residents should review severe weather safety plans, identify shelter locations, ensure mobile devices are charged, and maintain multiple methods of receiving weather warnings. Clinton County EMA will continue to monitor forecast updates and provide additional information as confidence and forecast details evolve.
Plan. Prepare. Protect.
[END UPDATE No. 2]
- - - START UPDATE No. 1 - - -
Update No. 1
Posted 7 am on Tuesday, 16 June 2026
June 16–18, 2026
The overall forecast remains on track with no major changes since yesterday. The greatest concern continues to be Wednesday evening through Thursday as a stronger weather system approaches the region. Residents should remain weather aware and continue to monitor forecasts over the coming days.
--- Tuesday (June 16) ---
Summary: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later today. Most storms are expected to remain below severe limits, but a few stronger storms may develop.
Main Threats
Lightning
Brief heavy rainfall
Isolated damaging wind gusts
Timing
Late afternoon through evening.
Additional Information
The highest risk for severe weather remains northwest of Interstate 71. However, any thunderstorm can produce dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
--- Wednesday (June 17) ---
Summary: Wednesday continues to be the primary day to watch, with the highest potential for severe weather across Clinton County and much of southwest Ohio. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a SLIGHT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms.
Main Threats
Damaging winds
Large hail
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out (Up to 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location in the county)
Timing
Evening through the overnight hours.
Additional Information
Forecast confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will develop somewhere in the region. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the exact timing and severity of storms. Residents with outdoor activities, travel plans, or evening events should monitor future forecast updates closely.
--- Thursday (June 18) ---
Summary: Showers and thunderstorms may continue as the weather system moves through the area.
Main Threats
Damaging winds
Lightning
Heavy rainfall
Localized flooding
A few tornadoes remain possible
Timing
Throughout the day.
Additional Information
In addition to thunderstorms, gusty winds are expected during the day, even outside of storms. Outdoor events, temporary structures, tents, and unsecured items may be affected by stronger wind gusts.
Forecast Confidence: Confidence is moderate that thunderstorms will affect the region at some point between Tuesday and Thursday. Confidence is highest that Wednesday evening into Thursday will present the greatest opportunity for severe weather and heavy rainfall. Exact timing and storm intensity will become clearer over the next 24 to 48 hours.
What Changed Since Yesterday?
No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Wednesday evening through Thursday remains the primary period of concern for severe weather, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding.
Clinton County EMA will continue monitoring forecast updates from the National Weather Service and provide additional information as confidence increases.
Plan. Prepare. Protect.
[END UPDATE No. 1]
- - - ORIGINAL HEADS UP MESSAGE - - -
Original Message
Posted 6:42 am on Monday, 15 June 2026
Weather Outlook: Tuesday Through Thursday
Clinton County residents should keep an eye on the weather over the next several days as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. While not everyone will experience severe weather, some storms may become strong or severe, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tuesday (June 16)
What to Expect: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.
Main Threats
Lightning
Brief heavy rain
Isolated damaging wind gusts
Timing
Greatest concern: Afternoon through evening
Confidence
Forecast confidence is moderate. The highest risk for severe weather is expected northwest of Interstate 71, but a few stronger storms could still affect Clinton County. Most storms should remain below severe limits, but any thunderstorm can produce dangerous lightning.
Wednesday (June 17)
What to Expect: Wednesday currently appears to be the most active weather day of the week. A strong storm system approaching from the west may bring widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Main Threats
Damaging winds
Large hail
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out
Timing
Afternoon through overnight hours
Confidence
Forecast confidence is moderate. While some details regarding timing and storm intensity remain uncertain, the overall signal for severe weather is stronger than Tuesday. Residents should pay close attention to forecast updates if they have outdoor plans.
Thursday (June 18)
What to Expect: Additional showers and thunderstorms remain possible as the storm system moves through the region.
Main Threats
Damaging winds
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Localized flooding
A few tornadoes remain possible
Timing
Throughout the day
Additional Concern
Even outside of thunderstorms, gusty winds are expected across the area. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph may occur during the day, which could make outdoor activities more challenging.
Bottom Line
The weather pattern becomes increasingly active from Tuesday through Thursday, with the greatest potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall currently focused on Wednesday and Thursday. Anyone with outdoor events, travel plans, construction projects, or recreational activities should monitor forecasts closely and be prepared to adjust plans if watches or warnings are issued.
Clinton County EMA will continue to monitor forecast updates and provide additional information as confidence increases.
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