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PNM 20240227

Updated: Feb 28

Updated: 27 Feb 2024


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UPDATE #6


Posted: 10:53 pm on Tuesday, 27 February 2024


TORNADO WATCH in effect for Clinton County till 6 am on Wednesday, 28 Feb 2024.






[END Update 6]


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UPDATE #5


Posted: 7:50 pm on Tuesday, 27 February 2024

Next Update: None (see https://www.cc-ema.org/notice)

Timing Update: Indications are local impacts around midnight Tuesday.




[END Update 5]


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UPDATE #4


Posted: 5:30 pm on Tuesday, 27 February 2024

Next Update: None (see https://www.cc-ema.org/notice)

Risk Level: Increased to ENHANCED... 3 (on a scale of 1 to 5) indicating a growing trend for potential.


SUMMARY: Updated wording and slides for Winds, Tornadoes, Large Hail, and Flash Flooding. Updates include:

  • Damaging Winds: ELEVATED (timing 9pm Tuesday - 7 am Wednesday)

  • Tornadoes: ELEVATED (timing 9pm Tuesday - 4 am Wednesday)

  • Large Hail: ELEVATED (timing 9 pm Tuesday - 2 am Wednesday)

  • Flash Flooding: LIMITED (timing midnight Tuesday - 7 am Wednesday)


KEY POINTS:

  • General timing 9 pm Tuesday to 7 am Wednesday;

  • Round 1:

    • The primary window for an isolated severe storm threat is from 9 PM to midnight for the entire area, but especially in Tri-State Region. Strong tornadoes and 75 MPH+ winds are possible during this time. Low confidence in timing and exact coverage.

  • Round 2:

    • After midnight, more numerous storms will occur south of I-70. This potential peaks between 1 AM and 7 AM.

    • 75 MPH+ winds & isolated spin up tornadoes are possible, especially in Tri-State Region.

  • Wednesday: Wind gusts from 35 to 40 MPH are possible as temperatures fall into the 30s.



NWS Slides:


Slide 1: Threats.



Slide 2: Comments.



Slide 3: Start Times.



Slide 4: Severe Weather Outlook.



Slide 5: Excessive Rainfall Outlook.



Slide 6: Peak Wind Gust Wednesday.



[END OF UPDATE 4]


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UPDATE #3


Posted: 2:30 pm on Tuesday, 27 February 2024

Next Update: 5:30 pm

Risk Level: Increased to ENHANCED... 3 (on a scale of 1 to 5) indicating a growing trend for potential.


SUMMARY: Increased risk for potential severe weather for this evening (9 pm Tuesday, through 6 am on Wednesday). Changes include:

  • Rating change from MARGINAL (yesterday) to SLIGHT (this morning) to now ENHANCED risk for convective weather;

  • 30% to 44% probability of Severe Wind (>74 mph) within 25 miles of a given point anywhere in Clinton County;

  • 15% - 20% probability of >2 inch hail within 25 miles of a given point anywhere in Clinton County;

  • 5% to 9% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point anywhere in Clinton County.


KEY POINTS:

  • Two (2) periods of potential storms: 9 pm and after midnight (possibly around 2 am);

  • Multiple rounds of thunderstorms possible;

  • Highest potential for tornadoes is in the tri-state area;

  • SIGNIFICANT wind gusts (75 mph) and an isolated strong tornado are possible southeast Indiana, southwest & southern Ohio, and portions of northern Kentucky.



NWS Slides:


Potential for Severe Weather:



Potential for Severe Winds:



Potential for Hail:



Potential for Tornadoes:



Forecast model showing potential at 9 pm on Tuesday night:



Forecast model showing potential at 1 am Wednesday morning:



[END OF UPDATE 3]




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SUMMARY:

Threat trending upwards at this time. Showers and thunderstorms will develop today and continue into tonight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible tonight. The main threat will be damaging wind. Outside of storms, wind gusts to around 40 mph will also be possible tonight.


Analyst Note: While the risk is increasing, this is not a guarantee of severe weather. Conditions are forecasted for a SLIGHT risk (short-lived and or not widespread, isolated intense storms possible). As of 6:30 am today, no WATCHES have been issued.


As Ryan Hall would say, "Be Prepared, not Scared."


If you know the threats, have a plan and shelter ready, an your notifications ready (i.e. NOAA weather radio, EMA Alerts, et cetera), then you should sleep well knowing that if you need to act, you will get the alert.


If you are not ready, then the preparedness window closes the closer you get to late afternoon today.


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UPDATE #2

Posted: 6:30 am on Tuesday, 27 February 2024

Risk Level: SLIGHT ... 2 (on a scale of 1 to 5) indicating a trend upwards of potential

Note: 5% Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point (brown area).



Threat/Timing:

  • Winds beginning locally (>25 mph) late morning.

  • Stronger winds this evening and overnight, with gusts near 40 mph.

  • A better chance for severe storms will develop overnight.

Hazards & Impacts:

  • Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

  • Large hail will also be possible and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.


NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook: Click Here


Current OnePager issued by NWS: