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PNM 20240629

Updated: Jun 28

Update No. 1 - 6:30 am on Friday, 28 June 2024


Changes/Additions:

  • Heat indices in the 90s to around 100 expected Saturday afternoon.

  • 2% Tornado risk for Clinton County.


SPC Day 2 Graphics:





Updated NWS OnePager:


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This is your Prepare Now Message for the potential for severe weather this Saturday, 29 June 2024.


Summary:

  • Clinton County is in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather this Saturday. This is a 2 on a risk scale of 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).

  • Timing indicates afternoon and evening on Saturday (possible multiple rounds of storms).

  • Primary threats:

    • Damaging winds that could impact trees and result in downed power lines.

    • An isolated tornado is possible.

  • There is uncertainty regarding coverage and timing of storms, so stay weather aware.


NWS graphic:


Additional Information:


Storm Prediction Center Day 3 (Sunday) Categorical Outlook:


Day 3 Convective Outlook Text:

ACUS03 KWNS 050732

SWODY3

SPC AC 050731


Day 3 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024


Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...


...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday.


...Synopsis and Discussion...

Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast.


At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low.


Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low.


..Mosier.. 06/05/2024



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